A brief story of Global Food Demand, Population and its projections...
Food trends over the years have shown great dynamism. Thomas Malthus in his early works attempted to shade light on how the trends in Population growth and Demand for food consumption changes over time. Off course a subsequent build up on the same by the Neo Malthusians, Club of Rome, global international bodies like UNDP, World Bank, UNPF have done countless works on the same subject. This brief article seeks to shed some small light on the history of food demand and how the same is affected by population trends over time.

Well I wouldn’t want to be charged with over simplifying such an important theory as Malthusian’s but in a lay man’s language Thomas Malthus’s words could be paraphrased as follows “Feed humans with ‘just’ enough to keep them running, and have just enough for their security, so that when tomorrow comes, they will have ‘just’ enough for another meal, if you underfed them, they will die of disease or war or…, if you give them so much food they will have more than their feel, have extra strength, involve themselves in extra ‘activities’ reproduce faster and soon the population will be out of control” This theory has been referred to as vice and misery theory.

Thomas Malthus off course prescribes that over time, the oscillations between high food supplies to increased population to war and disease and back to low population and food supply will with time approach stability. Off course Malthus failed in consideration of Technology changes that have been the greatest revolution in the production of food.
The Club of Rome looked at it almost the same way, they explained that with too much population growth then there was bound to be a great stretch on the environment and other resources and this stretch as caused by things like industrial pollution was bound to reach a breaking point. World fossil fuels, Agriculture and other natural resources would reach stretch levels. If the Club of Rome members would have considered markets as an indicator of resource availability and a source of economic motivation for creativity and search for new alternatives then thy would have been made a more accurate prediction.

A look at Africa today, especially the horn of Africa, one can easily invoke some words that Malthus didn’t speak, in this region apart from the good things that exist, apart from the few stable societies a large number of the inhabitants are hungry and fighting over resources, a literal application of that famous proverb. Statistics tell us there were 967 Million hungry people globally and that 17 million of those live in the horn of Africa a region with a population of 75 million. There is an ever increasing demand for food since the countries based around that place are politically unstable practice peasant farming and the climatic conditions are never the best. Such a region and most of Africa is yet to go through its full cycle of agricultural production history, Things are changing there but it might take a while.

Globally Technology improvement in food production, the development of Market system, trade specialization and other factors have led to increased production and improved standards of living across the nations. With the increase in specialization, the changes in roles of women, the introduction of formal education and the use of contraceptives have also given us a new perspective on the predictions of Club of Rome, Malthusians

Over time the demographics have changed in a very interesting way, originally, in the pre nineteenth century the mortality was very high, many diseases were not treatable, medical innovation was still at basic and death rates were almost equal to birth rates, Population was at bare replacement level. Beginning of 19th century the life expectancy started to increase in these affluent regions and with the agricultural development, mechanization and industrial revolution results led to increased quality of life. This greatly reduced mortality and death rates through out the west and that led to increased population, but also such made many women go to school, and re-defined their roles, it led to urbanization and the desirability of the “packet” family.

An almost similar picture is painted in the developing world; the populations have been growing at an alarming rate up to until the 1990’s where urbanization, women education contraceptives and improved nutrition, increased food production all have led to increased population and also the stabilization of such populations as the desire to have small families intensified. Birth, Death and Fertility rates have changed over the years with all these going down.
The changes in incomes of different countries are reflected in the amount these countries spend on food; at individual levels poorer countries spend more of their incremental in incomes on food than in developed, affluent nations. The Elasticity of food demand shows that developing countries have more capacity to use their income changes to consume more food, or “better” or higher valued food than their developed counter parts.
Using the elasticity of food demand and the rates of population growth we can foretell the rates at which increased food demand is happening at a specific country

An analysis of demand of food productions have depicted changes in demand of some food types depending on its status. Foods considered inferior will be consumed less at increased incomes while those considered normal will get a moderate increase, those considered higher quality and more expensive will be bought at a more increased incomes. This can be seen in the development and consumption of foods like cassava, corns etc.

Food demand with regards to changes in world population has changed over the years,
Those who have written on predictions of the world food demand trends like Malthus have not been able to give a clear guidance on the same, and in to days environment. We can use the elasticity of food demand and population growth trends to predict the trends yet we are not sure what new idea comes forth to revolutionaries the food demand trends as has been in the 20th century. In this brief analysis our prayer is that these ‘Ghost’ of Green revolution may spread and make regions like the Horn of Africa and other forgotten parts its home, its home so that they too can have that history that changed lives in the west

A brief story of Global Food Demand, Population and its projections...
Food trends over the years have shown great dynamism. Thomas Malthus in his early works attempted to shade light on how the trends in Population growth and Demand for food consumption changes over time. Off course a subsequent build up on the same by the Neo Malthusians, Club of Rome, global international bodies like UNDP, World Bank, UNPF have done countless works on the same subject. This brief article seeks to shed some small light on the history of food demand and how the same is affected by population trends over time.

Well I wouldn’t want to be charged with over simplifying such an important theory as Malthusian’s but in a lay man’s language Thomas Malthus’s words could be paraphrased as follows “Feed humans with ‘just’ enough to keep them running, and have just enough for their security, so that when tomorrow comes, they will have ‘just’ enough for another meal, if you underfed them, they will die of disease or war or…, if you give them so much food they will have more than their feel, have extra strength, involve themselves in extra ‘activities’ reproduce faster and soon the population will be out of control” This theory has been referred to as vice and misery theory.

Thomas Malthus off course prescribes that over time, the oscillations between high food supplies to increased population to war and disease and back to low population and food supply will with time approach stability. Off course Malthus failed in consideration of Technology changes that have been the greatest revolution in the production of food.
The Club of Rome looked at it almost the same way, they explained that with too much population growth then there was bound to be a great stretch on the environment and other resources and this stretch as caused by things like industrial pollution was bound to reach a breaking point. World fossil fuels, Agriculture and other natural resources would reach stretch levels. If the Club of Rome members would have considered markets as an indicator of resource availability and a source of economic motivation for creativity and search for new alternatives then thy would have been made a more accurate prediction.

A look at Africa today, especially the horn of Africa, one can easily invoke some words that Malthus didn’t speak, in this region apart from the good things that exist, apart from the few stable societies a large number of the inhabitants are hungry and fighting over resources, a literal application of that famous proverb. Statistics tell us there were 967 Million hungry people globally and that 17 million of those live in the horn of Africa a region with a population of 75 million. There is an ever increasing demand for food since the countries based around that place are politically unstable practice peasant farming and the climatic conditions are never the best. Such a region and most of Africa is yet to go through its full cycle of agricultural production history, Things are changing there but it might take a while.

Globally Technology improvement in food production, the development of Market system, trade specialization and other factors have led to increased production and improved standards of living across the nations. With the increase in specialization, the changes in roles of women, the introduction of formal education and the use of contraceptives have also given us a new perspective on the predictions of Club of Rome, Malthusians

Over time the demographics have changed in a very interesting way, originally, in the pre nineteenth century the mortality was very high, many diseases were not treatable, medical innovation was still at basic and death rates were almost equal to birth rates, Population was at bare replacement level. Beginning of 19th century the life expectancy started to increase in these affluent regions and with the agricultural development, mechanization and industrial revolution results led to increased quality of life. This greatly reduced mortality and death rates through out the west and that led to increased population, but also such made many women go to school, and re-defined their roles, it led to urbanization and the desirability of the “packet” family.

An almost similar picture is painted in the developing world; the populations have been growing at an alarming rate up to until the 1990’s where urbanization, women education contraceptives and improved nutrition, increased food production all have led to increased population and also the stabilization of such populations as the desire to have small families intensified. Birth, Death and Fertility rates have changed over the years with all these going down.
The changes in incomes of different countries are reflected in the amount these countries spend on food; at individual levels poorer countries spend more of their incremental in incomes on food than in developed, affluent nations. The Elasticity of food demand shows that developing countries have more capacity to use their income changes to consume more food, or “better” or higher valued food than their developed counter parts.
Using the elasticity of food demand and the rates of population growth we can foretell the rates at which increased food demand is happening at a specific country

An analysis of demand of food productions have depicted changes in demand of some food types depending on its status. Foods considered inferior will be consumed less at increased incomes while those considered normal will get a moderate increase, those considered higher quality and more expensive will be bought at a more increased incomes. This can be seen in the development and consumption of foods like cassava, corns etc.

Food demand with regards to changes in world population has changed over the years,
Those who have written on predictions of the world food demand trends like Malthus have not been able to give a clear guidance on the same, and in to days environment. We can use the elasticity of food demand and population growth trends to predict the trends yet we are not sure what new idea comes forth to revolutionaries the food demand trends as has been in the 20th century. In this brief analysis our prayer is that these ‘Ghost’ of Green revolution may spread and make regions like the Horn of Africa and other forgotten parts its home, its home so that they too can have that history that changed lives in the west

Education Cost Components of in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract
Since 2001, with the need of the developed world to help the impoverished world to develop faster, UN head of states meeting came up with the goals that have come to be known as; The Eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), all these stipulate a bench marks to be met by the end of 2015. Goal number two of these is; Education for all by 2015 This has been particularly a big thing for Africa since it has approximately 40 Million of the 78 Million Globally out-of school Children. There are factors why this is so, and this paper seeks to look at cost as a factor, in relation to government expenditures, urban population, and how all these affect primary , secondary school enrollments. The paper does not seek to make predictions but help take a step further into our understanding on these costs and how our understanding can help us focus our policies into the right direction towards meeting the MDG2
Education Cost Functions in Sub-Saharan Africa
Introduction
Among the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), goal number aims to millions of a generation of children through primary school. This has received a lot of attention with regions like Sub Saharan Africa being critical in the achievement of this goal. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to approximately 40 million children school, this number represents around 30% of the school age population. The big question any development conscious individual would ask is; Why can’t we school them? That’s the same question the Millennium development Goal number 2 is asking, There are many sides to the achievement of this goal, lots of guideline towards education this children , the MDG2 being one of them, but off course the greatest challenge to this is the cost implication. A few facts on the Millennium Development Goal number; There are 570 million Children enrolled in primary school, by 2006 there were 73 Million not enrolled, that number must had gone down from 130 million in 1999. The overall global enrollment rate had gone up, 88% from 83% in 2000.
It’s the cost implication that this paper seeks to look into, it’s a brief overview of the cost function of education as reflected by enrollments both in secondary and primary schools, it also looks at the GDP % spent on education across sub-Saharan countries. There are approximately 40 million children in Africa that are yet to be enrolled in school, this in a continent of 1 billion is indeed an enormous need. A raw comparison with Southern Asia’s 1.5 Billion population where only 19 Million children are un enrolled. The enrollment in Africa is at 71% while that of Southern Asia has gone up to 90%, the target of Millennium Development Goal 2 is to have all through a primary education by 2015. Off course the standard is to have all of them through school but the progress in Africa has been wanting with only countries like Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda showing good progress in enrollment rates though completion rates are wanting.



In an attempt to build an understanding the coast implication of taking all this children through school, this research builds up on the cost function of education as has been in most African Countries through from 1970 to 2007, and also look at population density effects on such. In its very nature, though similar in many ways Sub Saharan-Africa (SSAfrica) faces different challenges that might reflect on education costs differently. And so, although it’s possible to project establish an education cost function it is a fairly complex and any attempt to qualify this research a predictor of that is inadequate. This research just undertakes to generate a simplified education cost function that when combined with other research works could be developed further to help predict with a degree of certainty the makeup of education cost function in SSAfrica. The cost function as done in this paper is just but an amateur’s look into a clear glimpse of education costs in SSAfrica, especially with a relation into MDG2.
Literature Review
Educating African children has drawn lots of attention, with massive number of NGOs working all over Africa to promote education in various parts, NGO’s like FAWE, UNESCO DFID and others work tirelessly not just to achieve MDG2 but also pull the continent out of the misery that Underdevelopment has subjected it to. With the establishment of MDGs, organizations like DFID have been very keen to see that Africa is on track, The “Developments” magazine, a publication of DFID has listed some facts and benefits of basic primary education to include;
Mothers whose children receive four years of primary education are 40% more likely to live past 5 years. An extra year of education for African girls can increase their wages by 10-20%. In order to achieve MDG2 we have to hire 1.6 million teachers in Africa Alone. Around 1 in every 3 children who do not go to school is found in fragile states which are mostly in SSAfrica. By abolishing primary school fees countries like Kenya, Uganda Malawi and Tanzania increased their enrolments by around 1Million children each.
To be able to accomplish the target of having a generation of children through school by 2015, there has to be an amount of 11 billion dollars every year spent on education in the developing world. Globally 57% of the approximately 78 million out of school children are girls. Since 1991, every minute 13 children were enrolled in primary education globally between 1991 and 2004 At this rate 75 countries mostly in SSAfrica will not meet their target of MDG2 by 2015.
The facts further state that; there are 94 girls in every 100 boys in school. In 1999 over 1 million students lost their teachers to Aids in Sub-Saharan remember we need to hire 16 million Teachers in Africa Alone. These figures can go on and on, but what they tell us is summed up in one thing; the cost implication of educating sub-Saharan Africa is not just tied to the education provision overheads, neither is it tied only to the many socio-economic problems like HIV-AIDS Civil Wars and extreme climatic conditions, in the continent, is tells us it is indeed a complex function and an analysis of the cost function of education in Sub Saharan Africa therefore can be a great challenge for researchers.
Countries like Kenya spend at least 5% GDP or more on Education, it has done that for around 6 years, Education actually forms the greatest part of the budget. This is clear evidence that Education is indeed on the fore front of Developments plans for such countries like Kenya.
African countries have taken lots of imitative to invest in Education, its youthful population that includes the almost 40 million out of school children need to complete primary schooling by the end of 2015. The achievement of this MDG is crucial to the overall economic development of Africa.
Many Economist have written on the subject of education and how it relates to Economic Development, it , there are also models that have been development to help us understand the benefits of an additional year of education to Economic development, Robert Barro (2000) looks at effects of education on economic development, He develops models that help predict the economic impact of schooling, especially in his models he emphasizes on the outcomes of education not just in quantity (years)but also of quality of education, In his research R. Barro shows that its secondary school schooling and post secondary schooling that showed significant impact on economic development, Such outcomes may as well challenge us to not just think of putting these children through primary schooling but also take them through secondary if we are to have any significant economic impact. Yet looking at African economies there is so much non monetized benefits from education, especially primary education, from improved hygiene, to better pre and post natal care, off course research by many NGOs have tried to quantify that and see how that translates to increased absolute living standards, Simon Appleton (2000), effects on fertility rate, health and nutrition, child schooling and cognitive development among others. In his paper Simon Appleton (2000) Looking at education and their outcomes observes that in deed the benefits of Education vary across different countries and across different industries,
A look at the different effects of years of education in primary schools show that the effect of Primary education on Income in Subs-Saharan Africa varies from industry to another, with Agriculture showing 6.1% increase in income from 4 years of schooling. And looking at manufacturing industries where the incomes improved by about 3% from primary education. From secondary education the results showed higher effect, averaging at 14% and at 37% for tertiary education. Although these effects might not be obviously higher than the 10% social discount that the most public projects are gauged on, yet the returns on these findings could be understated. There is therefore a great reason why traditionally Education has been looked at as highly influential to Economic development and yet at times it’s difficult to point out which one determines the other, is it Education for economic development or is Economic development a pre-requisite for Development. Just the way Global Economic growth has reached phenomenon heights from 1900-to date compared to previous periods, Education two has followed suit, there is a great similarity in the trends of countries achieving high economic outcomes with their education system growth. SSAfrica still lags behind in education and this is reflected in the general economic growth although many factors come into play but amongst the most pressing is education. By 2000, in SSAfrica only primary completion rate was at only 54% and the level of Youth Illiteracy (15-24 Years) was at 8% higher than the rates across all developing countries. Riel Miller CISCO (2007) Global Education spending is expected to go higher and as industrialized countries increase the weight they put on more years of education, research and innovations then by 2030 we will mostly have 6% of global economy spent on education Angus Maddison (2007). Most of SSAfrican countries are already spending that % of their GDP and so shows how much important Education is in Public Policy and even economic development. Looking at the different GDP fractions paid in to fund education in all these countries, one could ask where these funds exactly go. What is the utilization picture on such funds, what proportion goes to fund primary, secondary schooling etc, what proportions goes on to fund Secondary school, There definitely is lots of work on this subject, and this review could be qualified as a baby step towards writing more on these topic.
Methodology
Data;
Almost every researcher working development panel data from the developing economies will express their challenges in getting timely and update accurate data on developing economies, there is isn’t and exception for this piece of work. The data used in the following models, is obtained from world development Indicator 2008, I have used data for 38 countries from SSAfrica, analyzed it using fixed and random effects regression methods to control for missing variables and to check time invariant correlations and arrest any continuous effects as common with panel data. Some missing variables in the models have necessitated editing for the sake of running the regressions but their overall effects on the models is assumed to have been captured by the use of the right panel data analysis methods as used. The models have concentrated in using; %GDP expenditures on education for different countries, %Primary enrollments, % secondary enrollments, Urban population density.
Models;
Education Cost function an overview
The data models in analysis of Education cost function is developed looking at four simple models;
Looked at the following models;
• Education expenditure as % of GDP versus Primary, secondary school enrollment rates and population density rates
• Secondary enrollments rates as influenced by the expenditure on secondary education and urban population density
• Population Densities and how it affects enrollments in primary schools
*Data models outputs are attached at the end.
Primary Enrollments rates as as influenced by Government expenditures on education and Population densities across the country
This models shows that from the 32 countries analyzed, showed that in deed government expenditures on education significantly affected the rates of primary school enrollments, every 1% increase in primary enrollments resulted from an increased 4% expenditure education expenditure by the government, this increased expenditure would obviously if converted to a % of GDP be much smaller, but it does point research to ask further questions Where exactly in the education sector do these governments put in their do these governments put in their expenditures? If the governments were to increase the enrollments to 100% from the current 71% then by using public expenditure only then assuming all costs are constant, and increases are proportional they will need to more than double their current education expenditures increase expenditure i.e. increase 116%, a higher calling, smoothening the models could paint a better picture on how we can adjust the same. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa will use most if the public education expenditures to develop primary education but put in little towards secondary and even lesser amount towards tertiary education. As a result the expenditure on secondary schools was not significant on secondary school enrollment; it’s until recently 2006, that countries like Kenya have started to substantially subsidies Secondary Education. A percentage increase in enrollment did not depend significantly on any increased expenditure by the government on secondary education. In both Primary and secondary enrollments rates there is as would be expected a higher enrollment in urban areas with the regression of 37 countries showing that for every 1% of urban population accounted for both primary and secondary enrollment increase of 1.4%. This means that although the MDG2 wouldn’t want to be associated with the underdevelopment of the rural areas, in favor of the urban areas, the numbers are in the urban centers. The quick wins as far as being on track towards education for all by 2015, might involve reaching to the accessible children in the urban centers’ before driving deep into the inaccessible rural areas. These models show that for every % increase in public expenditure in education then approximately 4% was due to urban areas expenditures. Lots of other factors come into play in this models, From the explained residuals of this models one would notice that the variables can only explain but a fraction, e.g. 30%, and so we have other variables that this research needs to consider before we can come close to making conclusive inferences that can help us draw definitive policy decisions, and so we not use the blanket estimations indicated earlier in this analysis to recommend policies, but we can only use such a simple model to peep into the right direction with a hope that we can develop such models further as we look into that direction to help us see clearly and make the right choices to reaching this crucial goal of education for all by 2015

Conclusion;
In order to achieve the MDG2 in SSA and other areas, there is need for development agencies and governments of the developing world to analyze the education cost function, and understand the complexities of such function components in the developing world so that when they attack this enemy of “Illiteracy’ they will do so with a clear cut strategy that will indeed put SSAfrica on the finishing line. A look at the cost function in relation to urban populations, school enrollments and % GDP expenditures are crucial steps towards understanding the education cost functions in this region. This research was not meant to be conclusive in its findings but rather point us to a path that will build up to some vital understanding of the education functions ion SSA in the build up to MGD2, BY 2015



Reffrences
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/education.shtml http://goafrica.about.com/od/africatraveltips/a/africafacts.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa
http://www.developments.org.uk/downloads/Education-the-facts.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/5/49/1825455.pdf
http://www.rielmiller.com/images/Education-and-Economic-Growth.pdf http://www.adeanet.org/adeaPortal/adea/biennial-2006/doc/document/PL4_2+MingatJaramillo_en.pdf
http://huebler.blogspot.com/2009/02/coos.html
http://www.uis.unesco.org/ev.php?ID=2867_201&ID2=DO_TOPIC
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/edu_edu_spe-education-spending-of-gdp
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTEDUCATION/0,,contentMDK:20530037~menuPK:617572~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:282386~isCURL:Y,00.html
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTABOUTUS/0,,pagePK:50004410~piPK:36602~theSitePK:29708,00.html

Africa will thrive, as their leaders give their citizen a chance to be what they want to be, That continent is overflowing with talent, there is so much to be tapped only if the society fosters that enviroment. Africa's leadership is loosening up, nation by nation, they are adopting a more liberal society, a society that gives its citizens a chance to be what they want to be! A society bulging with Freedom
But why Freedom?

Freedom is important because, it gives citizens of any country the opportunity to express themselves both in their creativity, skills, passions, desires, aspirations and even opinions on issues close to their hearts.
Freedom in other words means liberty to make ones choices about every part in ones life as long as this choice does not interfere with the rights of other people. In our very nature as human beings, we act out of self intrest,
and as observed extensively in the first chapters of his book, Adam Smith the great economist, It is that self intrest that ensures that the butcherman stocks meat,
and its the same self intrest that would make the ordinary man work hard, so he may buy a pound of meat from that butcherman. This whole scenario of working towards self intrest therefore adds up to a functional economy where it works for the good of the all people, The butcherman for his profits the worker for his wages, and not just wages as an end but wages to puchase the meat and so feed themselves. That is in deed the genious of freedom, that we all can express our diverse selves in these many varied ways to meet our self intrests even when these self intrests help meet other peoples self intrests and where we all walk away with a fair share of our efforts.
The goverment should come in with with fair regulation, property rights that protect evey citizen's quest to better their well being. impartial in its settings maintain law and order,It should also build proper infrustructure to facilitate every citizen's quest to express themselves both with their creativity skills and talent and also in their thinking opinion and aspirations, that is how freedom builds a cohesive yet diversified fabric of nationhood.
Freedom is teh first step to the Economic Emanicipation of Africa!
Amuka Africa Uhuru ndio Chanzo! (Arise Africa, Freedom is the deal!)

Today, I want to recount the story of Capitalism, something dear to the world, so much so that the nations that shun capitalism are looked at as black sheeps...human rights abusers etc....nobody looks at them twice...if it was our power we could have them in another planet..safe and far away from us...but wait a minitue what does the father of Economics, Adam Smith have to say about Capitalism;
in his very basic introduction of the book; "Wealth of Nations" Adam Smith writes AND I QUOTE
"By following their own selfish intrests, doing what seems best and most profitable for themselves and responding to the incentives of prices set on open markets, people produce a spontaneuos social order, in that millions of transactions and activities fit together to produce the things that people want within the constaints set by the resources that are available to the nation..."

See this was Adams Smith's idea of a better society, where every one is given an equal chance to pursue their self intrests. He prescribes a Capitalism that gives every one a chance and makes it possibility to pursue their self interest..thats the genius of capitalism. I believe one day, in every part of the world, especially in the depths of Africa, these words will resonate not in sounds but in acts, where goverments will makes such a conjusive enviroment that their citizens will not have to die with all their potentials.